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Of American-English origin, the colloquial phrase lead-pipe cinch designates a complete certainty.
This phrase occurs, for example, in an article about the Transfer Unit at NATTC, published in The Bull Horn (Norman, Oklahoma, USA) of Thursday 2nd March 1944 [page 13, column 1]—The Bull Horn was published for the personnel of Naval Air Technical Training Center (NATTC), Norman, Oklahoma:
The Transfer Unit [is] where you’ll live for anywhere between two days to two weeks when you’ve finished school and are ready for duty with the fleet, at an advanced base, or at another shore station. It’s the distributing center for NATTC’s manpower—the clearing house.
You’d think, with orders for drafts coming in on a fairly regular basis, that running such a place would be a lead pipe cinch. You’re wrong. One slip and the whole works would be more fouled up than a Chinese fire drill. As one of the MAA’s in charge noted: “You don’t have to be crazy to run this joint, but it helps.”
The phrase lead-pipe cinch originated in the context of horse-racing, and it seems that lead-pipe is an intensifier of the noun cinch, which apparently, here, designates a girth used to secure a saddle.
But the reason lead-pipe was chosen as an intensifier is not known (however, cf., below, quotation 5). The following explanations are from Race-track Slang, by L. J. Vance, published in American Notes and Queries: A Medium of Intercommunication for Literary Men, General Readers, etc. (Philadelphia: The Westminster Publishing Company) of Saturday 23rd August 1890 [page 197, column 1]:
—Note: This was published less than three years after the text containing the earliest occurrence of the phrase lead-pipe cinch that I have found (cf., below, quotation 1):
A very peculiar but emphatic bit of turf slang is the word “cinch.” When a person has a cock-sure thing, when he can pick out without fail the winning horse, he is said to have a “cinch.” This word, taken from the Spanish, is used by cowboys to denote the way in which their saddles are tightened on their ponies. There are no buckles on the belly-band, but in their place there is a “cinch-strap,” which passes through two rings and is tied by the “cinch-knot.” The Western phrase, “cinching up,” means simply tightening the girth. And, it is significant that, on the race-track, you hear the expression “an air-tight.” The most emphatic form is a “lead-pipe cinch,” but how that intensifies the certainty I am unable to say.
These are, in chronological order, the earliest occurrences of the phrase lead-pipe cinch that I have found:
1-: From the column Sporting Brevities, published in The Evening Telegram (Camden, New Jersey, USA) of Saturday 5th November 1887 [page 1, column 3]:
Jimmy McLaughlin has a sure thing, and “air tight” and a “lead pipe” cinch on the premier jockeyship now. It was the hardest fight he ever had, and was literally a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat.
2-: From an account of horse-races, dated Saratoga, New York, Saturday 28th July 1888, published in The Boston Sunday Globe (Boston, Massachusetts, USA) of Sunday 29th July 1888 [page 6, column 2]:
The races today were not very satisfactory to the talent, as the favorites were downed in five out of the six events.
Jockey Freeman came in for a great ovation every time he returned to the stand after a race. He won two races and finished second in another. The hardest hit the talent received was over the Alabama stakes. They considered Lucky Baldwin’s great filly Los Angeles a “lead pipe cinch,” and put their money on at any odds. Thanks to Jimmy McLaughlin’s riding, the stakes went to the Dwyer brothers’ treasury by Bella B.’s victory.
3-: From an account of the horse-races that took place at Gravesend, Brooklyn, on Friday 28th September 1888, published in The Sun (New York City, New York, USA) of Saturday 29th September 1888 [page 3, column 1]:
Fordham was a lead-pipe cinch for the second division of the selling race, winning hands down from Capulin, the others nowhere. The best betting obtainable against Fordham at the close was 5 to 4 on.
4-: From an account of the Stalwart Stakes held at Jerome Park, New York City, on Wednesday 3rd October 1888, published the New-York Tribune (New York City, New York, USA) of Thursday 4th October 1888 [page 4, column 1]:
Trainer Rogers has a reputation second to none on this continent as a repairer of used-up, broken-down thoroughbreds, but all men fail at times. For nearly eighteen months he has been at work on Blue Wing, end [sic] when the horse romped home the easiest of winners on the occasion of his first appearance at Gravesend, on September 22, it was the common opinion that he had recovered his best form and was destined to repay his trainer for a year and a half of careful nursing. In his third race, when intrusted with thousands of dollars by his stable and the public and looked upon as a “lead-pipe cinch” of the best manufacture, tested and warranted in every manner, his dickey leg gives way and the faithful are left to mourn.
5-: From the New-York Tribune (New York City, New York, USA) of Monday 8th October 1888 [page 12, column 1]:
THE LAST WEEK OF RACING
TO-DAY’S PROGRAMME AT JEROME PARK.
ORIGIN OF THE “LEAD PIPE CINCH”—A FEW WANTED JUST NOW.If any man has made a corner in “cinches” he should in all conscience let up this week and throw a few on the market for the benefit of the old guard of race-goers who are striving to get even before the season closes. Only six days of grace remain for squaring accounts with the ring. Oh, for three or four real, old-fashioned “lead pipes,” such as the gambler had on the thief. The gambler had been looking for “cinches” all his life, but none had ever come his way. The thief persuaded him on a certain occasion to join a quiet expedition to Jersey City which promised to be highly profitable. The undertaking failed, however, and the pair set out on their return to New-York.
“I never give up a job without takin’ along a little reminder of it,” the thief remarked, and finding a piece of lead pipe he proceeded to coil it around his waist. When his coat was buttoned over it he looked a little lumpy, to be sure, but aroused no suspicion. The two reached the ferry as the boat started out of the slip. Both ran to catch it and jumped. The gambler got safely aboard, but, alas, the poor thief, loaded with lead pipe, fell short and with a yell of agony disappeared beneath the yellow foam. Deck-hands and passengers rushed to the stern of the boat and looked at the seething waters.
“He’ll come up in a second,” shouted one, getting ready to cast a line.
“Ten to one he don’t!” screamed the gambler, shaking a wad of bank-notes over the heads of the crowd.
“I tell you he will,” yelled the other, furious over the contradiction.
“Fifty to one he don’t! A hundred to one he don’t! A thousand to one he don’t come up!”
The gambler raved and waved his money, but found no takers.
“Ten thousand to one he don’t come up!” he bawled. “I’ve been looking all my life for a dead sure thing, and now I’ve got it. Who wants to back ’em? Fifty thousand to one he don’t come up!”
And he was right. The dead sure thing had come at last, for the thief never rose again.
Such is the origin of the “lead pipe cinch.” Perhaps there is one in the programme to-day. The fields are small, but they are made up of good horses, and promise exciting sport. The dry wind yesterday and last night, improved the track so much that there will be little mud to complain of this afternoon.
6-: From an account of the horse-races that took place at Ivy City, Washington, D.C., on Wednesday 31st October 1888, published in the New-York Tribune (New York City, New York, USA) of Thursday 1st November 1888 [page 4, column 5]:
It was a hard day for the favorities [sic] and a good one for the books. The friends of the Pittsburg Stable considered Brown Charlie a real old “lead-pipe cinch” in the first race, but the pipe leaked and the cinch went astray.
There have been variants of the phrase lead-pipe cinch. One of them, lead-pipe good thing, occurred, for example, in an account of the horse-races held at the Hawthorne track, Illinois, on Thursday 18th June 1891, published in The Daily Inter Ocean (Chicago, Illinois, USA) of Friday 19th June 1891 [page 3, column 5]:
The surprise of the day was a “lead-pipe good thing” sprung by Captain Widener in the form of Lizzie Gwynne, a 12 to 1 shot in the final event.
Another variant, lead-pipe sure thing, occurred in an account of the horse-races held at Homewood Park, Illinois, on Friday 22nd July 1892, published in The Pittsburg Dispatch (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA) of Saturday 23rd July 1892 [page 8, column 1]:
It was quite a sensational day at Homewood race track yesterday. There were no records broken or very fast time made, but the hot favorites, those “lead-pipe” sure things, were knocked clean out of sight. The talent was again left to mourn, as not a favorite won a race.
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